YETT Young Experts’ Think
Tank
scott e. goddard
The caucasus:
stormy past, bumpy future?
Introducton page 3
Complications and
future importance of the Trans-Caucasian region
section I page
5
History of the Caucasus & the Tsarist Russian invasion
section II page
7
Pre-Soviet Caucasus & the Christian dynamic
section III page 9
Peculiarities of
Tsarist Russian domination
section IV page
11
Pre-Soviet Georgia –
proclivities toward socialism
section V page
13
Pre-Soviet Azerbaijan –
proclivities toward socialism
section VI page
15
Pre-Soviet Armenia –
proclivities toward socialism
section VII page
16
Collapse of the Soviet Union
section VIII page
18
Post-Soviet Georgia:
political instability + economoics
section IX page
20
Post-Soviet Azerbaijan:
economics
section X page
21
Post-Soviet Armenia:
economics
section XI page
22
How does the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict impact international and energy security?
section XII page
23
The Future of the Caucasus: bright or foreboding?
section XIII page
24
Conclusion
Introduction
The
Caucasus is an extremely complex and diverse region between the Black Sea and
the Caspian Sea, and to the south of Russia
Proper. The Caucasus
mountains have given to the region some
very distinctive and complex characteristics.
It is home to many different ethnic groups, including:
Abkhazi, Circassian, Georigan, Armenian, Dagestani, Greek, Iranian, Turkic and Mongolic
peoples. In the state of Georgia, for
example, there are four distinct ethnic groups represented, with the majority
being Georgian, but with significant minorities of Greeks, Armenians and
Iranians. Azerbaijan is populated mainly by Azeris (Caucasian Albanians),
but it also combines several ethno-linguistic minority groups such as the
Armenians (this will be dealt with in a subsequent chapters),
Iranians and Circassians. Armenia consists of Armenians as
the dominant ethnic group, small pockets of Greeks and a relatively large
concentration of Azeris in the south of the
country. While it is true that the
Caucasus region is an unstable area, it is also an area of great promise in
that it (especially Azerbaijan) are said to sit
atop an extremely large store of oil and natural gas. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in
1991, it has become an increasingly diverse and internationally important
region, not least because the oil supply in the Middle
East will some day run out.
There are proven estimates of oil in the Transcaucasia
region and Central Aia
ranging from 15-40 billion barrels, with the potential of between 75 and 150
billion barrels more. Analysts have said
that eventually this area could produce an equivalent magnitude as the North Sea.
The Caucasus region has a long
history of being exploited, primarily by Soviet Union
for oil. By 1940, Azerbaijan
accounted for nearly 70% of all the Soviet oil production. However, some of the
deposits were known to the Soviet Union were
in extremely difficult areas to access.
Due to the fact that the necessary technology was not available to the
Soviet Union, and the fact that Baku, the Azerbaijani oil capital, was
extremely susceptible to attack during World War II, and the subsequent
discovery of oil in the Volga-Urals and the Siberian regions of Russia Proper,
exploration and exploitation of the trans-Caucasus region was halted. The breakup of the Soviet
Union meant initial instability, but there is a bright future
ahead with further opportunities for the liberalisation
of investment regimes. Despite initial instability in some countries which may oblige
potential investors to reinvest themselves in business negotiations with the
new governing bodies, as they change and find themselves, of the newly formed
states. In some cases this
process will the repeated several times as the governments in the region
changed. However, by the late 1990s, the
region was relatively stable politically, and a number of countries have made
significant progress in extracting investment to their oil and gas sectors from
international and national investors.
While they are significant reserves in either in Armenia or Georgia, the political stability of
these two states is vital to the continued production and exportation of oil
and found in the Azeri oilfields. The non-oil states would benefit from this by
charging transportation fees.
This essay will deal with the
problems and possibilities that will be confronted by these states as they move
into the future. In order to adequately
understand the possible futures of these states, it will be necessary to
examine some of the history of this region so as to better understand the
social constructions and proclivities of the peoples of the Caucasus. Only then will it be possible to forecast the
future ramifications of increased oil investment on the stability of the Azeri,
Armenian and Georgian peoples.
section I
The Caucasus
is essentially a land of mountains, the inhabitants of which, with the
exception of and the Christian population, were essentially mountain dwelling
peoples. It has been the determining
factor for the genesis of the Caucasian population. The peoples of the Caucasus owe the
maintenance and perpetuation of their specific characteristics and cultures to
the physical features of the region; they also, however, have been historically
reliant on the physical security and provided by the Caucasus
region for their survival. The
mountainous region has protected these peoples by creating an area where a completely
successful invasion is a near impossibility.
It is therefore not an exaggeration to say that these mountains have
“made the man;” in return for this
protection, the peoples of the Caucasus are extremely attached to them and will
fight with passion, courage, bravery, skill and energy to defend and maintain
what has been their homeland for thousands of years. The terrain of this mountainous region is
such that, once entrenched, the Caucasian people are nearly unconquerable. However, despite this, the height and
ruggedness of the great ranges, the plunging depths of the valleys and the vast
spread of forest in the area have made it impossible for the Caucasian peoples
to unite in a confederation to increase their strength. Without the strength provided by cooperation,
the Caucasian tribes were bound eventually to fall to the cohesive, orderly and
overwhelming force of Tsarist Russia in the 19th century, and again
to the Soviet Union in the early 20th
century.
The Caucasus has been populated
since the early Stone Age, but it has only been comparatively recently that the
two most significant cultures -- the Armenians and the Georgians -- have
acquired truly individual cultures that have been expressed for approximately
1500 years in there own languages. Both
alphabets, Armenian and Georgian, were designed in ecclesiastical circles to
promote and strengthen Christianity in these two countries. As this took place in the early 5th century
(two or three generations AD), the written sources of Armenian and Georgian
Christianity was of a different character than is traditional
Christianity. While the Ottoman and
Persian Empires fought over control of Georgia,
the Armenian nation was stuck between the two major powers of Rome
and Iran. It soon occurred that the leader of Armenian
nation took over the duties of the patriarch: he began to act as Father of the
nation. Because of its position between
the great powers of Syria
and Rome,
Armenian Christianity was influenced to different degrees and extents by both
sides at different times in their history.
Georgians, on the other hand are in even more divided society than
Armenians. Georgia were
divided into two fairly distinct areas that, until the 12th century, maintained
not completely incompatible religions in the same country. While Western Armenia had relatively close
ties to Constantinople and the church of the Byzantine Empire, and Central Georgia
and border on Armenia, and
so Armenian Christian influence is relatively strong in Iberia.
The history of this region is long
and extremely complex. Suffice it to say
that because of a constant threat of invasion for armed with the Ottoman and
Persian Empires, King Erekle of Georgia, formerly
loyal to the Persian Empire, in the late 1700s asked Tsarist Russia for a
protection from invasion, and in 1783 Russian suzerainty was established over
the Republic of Georgia. In 1795, forces from the Persian Empire
invaded Tbilisi,
and the Russians, in 1801, deposed King Ereckle and
annexed eastern Georgian kingdom and put it under Russian control. Between 1810 and 1878, Russia and annexed the rest of Georgia. Therefore, it is not surprising that, due to
both the expansionist tendencies of the Russian empire and the need for
stability and protection from the Ottoman and Persian Empires, Orthodox
Christian Russia invaded and subordinated the rest of the Caucasus.
section II
The Armenian experience can be
somewhat likened to the experience of the Jews, in that they were extremely
divided amongst the Empires, and have also disbursed in a worldwide diaspora. There are
also parallels in that the Armenian people went through periods of massacre
(what we today call genocide). The Armenians were subject to genocide twice
in recorded history. From 1894 to 1895,
about 300 000 Armenians were targeted murders by the Ottoman
Empire. This caused an
enormous exodus of Armenians from the rounds of the lands of the Ottoman Empire, and closed an extreme dispersal of the
Armenians around the world. Bearing this
in mind, this essay will examine some of the intricacies of the Armenian
nation.
It was the moment everything
changed: No longer in weren't the Georgians come
Armenians and Azerbaijanis subject to domination by a foreign, Moslem power,
but were finally united with a Christian, European society. The annexation of the carcasses also meant
that Moslem Caucasians were now subject to Christian rule. This led to the Westernization of the
significant portion of the elite of the three countries. It also created a considerable chasm in both power, wealth and respect between the elite and the
majority of the population, which had not, to a significantly been a problem
prior to the Russian annexation of the Caucasus. The westernisation
of a significant portion of the Armenian, Georgian and Azerbaijani communities
resulted in the creation of an economic and political life in Transcaucasia which led to an intense hostility among those
who were traditionally the elite, and those who stranded to work there are ways
up the “ladder of success.” Indeed, the movement from a more hierarchical Padarn
of economics to a more meritocratic form of
economics soon the latest to the downfall of the traditional Georgian noble
elite in Transcaucasia. Prior to annexation,
and the carcasses had been subject to a form of feudalism in which the Georgian
aristocracy became the land-owners, while others were forced to work as
serfs. The serfs were meanly of Armenian
background, but also included workers from other tribes, while the land owners
were in the main Georgians. This type of
feudalism continued for so long that the Georgian land owners became accustomed
to not having to work for their money. They were therefore not ready to shift
focus and begin to work for their paycheck; neither were they accustomed to
this idea, and for this reason it proved to be very difficult for Georgians to
compete with the other classes and peoples who knew what it was like to work,
and also knew the value of work. This
increased the differentiation between Armenians and Georgians that was already
present. In other words, the idea that
power and prestige was attainable by anyone who wanted to try for it was an
inflammatory idea, to put it mildly.
However, this increased distinction
between Armenians and Georgians, and has allowed the Armenian ethnicity to
solidify its belief in itself as a nation.
It is doubtful that this would have happened if there had not been a
pre-existing “racial” distinction between the two peoples. This difference had grown due to the different
influences on the Armenian and Georgian peoples throughout history. The Armenians received influence as regards
their form of Christianity from both Syria
and Greece. For example, the Armenian word for priest,
monk, sabbath, congregation
and preaching were all taken from the Syriac
language, whereas words used to refer to a more organised
church with an established hierarchy such as bishop and patriarch were taken
from the Greek language. Georgia, more than Armenia, wires significantly
divided between the two fairly distinctive areas. These areas were not united until the 12th
century of the Christian era. Western Georgia, which looks to the Black Sea,
due to the greater ease and rapidity of sea travel, wires are closely
associated to Constantinople and the church of the Byzantine Empire and was Armenia, which
was land-locked at that time. In the
Central Georgia -- Iberia to
be exact -- Armenians missionaries were active and the borderlands between the
two states, and those significantly influenced the type of Christianity that
was practice in Central Georgia. Christianity took a firmer hold in Iberia after the conversion of King Mihran of Iberia
in the middle of the fourth century AD.
This diversity of beliefs and has created and divisions within an
ethnicity within the same state. Armenia and Georgia, both of which are
Christian states, maintain different belief systems from each other and ardour for weary of the actions of one another. Perhaps because the Armenian community has
been so disbursed for most its history, it is a more accepting of the different
ideas and and are the Georgians. Perhaps this acceptance of differing beliefs
and ways of doing things was a contributing factor to the Armenian success in
free enterprise business man the Georgians.
However, it is not the intent of in this bother to suggest that all
Georgians were unable to make the transformation from a restore Christie to
bourgeoisie; this statement would in fact be very untrue. For example, in Baku, while it is true that a
blow to 40 percent of the businesses were on land and operated by Armenians,
there was at least 16 percent of businesses were owned and operated by
Georgians.
section III
The day that the Soviet empire annexed Armenia
and Azerbaijan in its quest
to protect both itself and Georgia
from the Ottoman and the Persian Empires, everything changed. No longer were the nations of the Christian
Caucasus any longer in a Moslem dominated world. It was, instead, the Christian’s turn to
dominate the Moslem Caucasus. The
complete annexation of Georgia
and and the subsequent conquests of Azerbaijan and Armenia produced in the social and
political life of the Caucasian nationalities a series of profound changes
which led enter and to the westernisation of
significant portions of their elite.
This also led to go westernisation of almost
the hall of the peasant population. When
tsarist Russia gained full control of the Caucasus, it began to institute, in
combination with tsarist bureaucratic and military rule, the beginnings of a
market society Carmen a rudimentary transportation system as well those a
communications network. The increasing
use and affordability of transportation and communication led to substantially
increased interrelation between the small cities of the Transcaucasia as well as the villages spread
throughout the territory. This greater
degree of social communication had a single purpose. It was meant to create an ethnic cohesion. However, this growth of relatively easy,
cheap and effective communication had an unintended (or perhaps intended)
consequence: the fanning of the nationalist flame.
According to Professor Ronald Grigor Suni, and the displacement
of the traditional Georgian noble elite in both the economic and political life
of Transcaucasia after of the subordination of the
region to the tsarist empire turned out to be quite disastrous. Instead of a graceful abdication, or the
realization of the Georgian nobility that they needed to learn how to be more
entrepreneurial, there was an enormous backlash against the significant upsurge
in the size and strength of the Armenian bourgeoisie. This was one of the reasons for Georgian
nationalism became a backward-looking, nostalgic ideology that tended only to
bemoan the disappearance of the status
quo ante. This form of national
ideology did not resonate with the Georgians who weren't interested more in
obtaining the Council benefits of European Fullest development in order to
benefit their countrymen, or among those more radical elements who adopted
populist (and leading Marxist) inferiors of a were revolutionary programme conceived at as a multinational
"all-Russian” political movement against autocracy. Therefore, the ideology that was most
acceptable to the majority of Georgians was that of a Social Democratic (Menshivik, as opposed to Bolshevik) colouring,
combined with the nationalist movement.
While the Georgian socialist ideology was quite moderate in order to
bring together the greatest number, the Armenian nation was forced to choose
between an overtly socialist Caucasian intelligentsia and a more nationalist
element predominated in the Ottoman Armenians.
However, because of their ethnic cohesion and character, the Armenians
soon came to focus on finding away to bring the desperate am Armenian
communities together in a way that takes into account the ongoing adjustments
that must be made in order to maintain cohesion and between the two principle
Armenian communities. They were also
aware, frown historical experience, that the maintenance of social and
political cohesion was vital to the maintenance of a nation. Fortunately or unfortunately, neither of the
ideological flag-bearers and were able to a profound the genocidal destruction
of the Anatolian Armenians.
Often referred to as back word and
unenlightened in early references, the Azerbaijanis were gone through cultural
and political transformation at the same time and rate at as the other two
peoples. When Russian rule was established, perhaps
the most important idea that came with it all is that of capitalism. It was because of the riches of the Baku area that Baku
was transformed from a once isolated provincial town into a major industrial
centre. Because Baku was such an opportunity, it attracted a
significant amount of Armenian, Russian and foreign capital. During this time of opening to larger Russia, the
other by Jenny community was in the midst of developing a native bourgeoisie
and intelligentsia. This attempt broad a
blow to the development of a national press, a secular literature as well as schools . as well, political parties among the Azerbaijanis was faced
with many of the same problems that the Armenian national parties faced. Was the goal independence or was it autonomy;
or is the goal the unity of nationality divided by international borders? The ideology that was followed by Azeri
leaders was not of a particular colour. It was, on the other hand, and ideology of
utility; the Azeris would negotiate and “flow with”
whichever Great Power ideology was most favourable. At times, the Azeris
would ally themselves with the Ottoman Turks or the Russians. They even, at one point, briefly allied
themselves with the British. As the
Civil War in Russia
began to wind down and the other two powers decided that there was nothing
left, the Azeris turned more and more toward the new
Russian Empire. The sovietization
of Azerbaijan
proceeded relatively quickly as the Azeri orientation was already, from the
perspective of power politics, quite pro-Soviet.
section IV
: political
and social resistance provided by Georgians to Russian rule was an extremely
complex and confused process. It was one
in which pressures for accommodation with the Russian regime
were at times greater than those forces that produced resistance to
acquiescence. Also in Georgia, the
nationalist movement, which was a reaction to the economic and domination by
the Russians and Armenians, was not a the liberation
movement. The Georgians, who were
incorporated into the Russian Empire in the first decades of the 19th-century,
were at the time and a divided, defeated and inchoate people who, by the late
18th century, faced a virtual extirpation of their race; they were at risk rule
was unbearable language and a sense of nationhood.
The social and political
integration into the Russian Empire, and so preceding economic stability and and increase in the moulds of communication among
Georgians, as well as the introduction of Western education, contributed
significantly to the formation of the Georgian nationality, a process that was
mostly completed by the late 1800s.
Indeed, former many Georgians, this new national ideology replaced to a
significant extent many traditional alliances and and
police that predominated in early in Georgia and society; yet also
enhanced a socialist ontology. This and
national way to this feeling of nationality was increased by Russian governors
trying to eliminate the traditional social and cultural peculiarities of Georgia. In this search and national feeling was also
aided by the imposition of capitalism, which caused a decline in traditional
Georgian social relations; the Georgian nobility reacted extremely negatively
to unbearable loss of wealth and status as a result of the imposition of
capitalism, and the subsequent rise of the Armenian middle class. This urbanisation
was not particularly conducive to these lifestyles that the Georgian people had
got and used to all for several centuries, and those many of the weren't unable
to adapt to be changing circumstances, thus increasing the feeling of
solidarity among the Georgians. They
were on most completely isolated from 1 positions of political and economic
power due to this cultural resistance to change. The effects of these changes also guaranteed,
due to the nature and of capital accumulation, that there would be class
struggle within the nationalist ideology.
This is because of the stratification of the Georgian ethnicity into
rapport, marginalised groups and small, rich and
successful groups in the new society. As
this problem was neglected by him the Liberal adherents of the Georgian
society, it left open an opportunity for a much more socialist ideology to 1
take hold in the hearts’ and minds’ of the lower classes of Georgians, which
constituted in the vast majority of the Georgian people.
section V
Azerbaijan is an extremely
interesting country, in that it is a Moslem community either of the border
lands of the Russian Empire, which at that time was heavily influenced by
Orthodox Christianity. Not only this,
but it was soon annexed by the Russian Empire.
The 1828 Russo- Persian Treaty of Turkmenchai finalise the transfer of the semi autonomous republic of Azerbaijan
frown the control of the Persian Empire to the
control of the Russian Empire. The
ethnic demographics of Azerbaijan
at the time of incorporation was relatively
diverse. There was a large majority of Shi'ite as well as a large minority of Sunni Moslems in
Russian Azerbaijan.
These
two ideological groups represented relatively distinct political and cultural
orientations. While that she aids
persisted in their devotion to Persia,
the Sunni's gravitated toward the cultures of Dagestan and to a lesser extent
the Ottoman Empire. When tsarist Russia and went to war with
Turkey in 1828 and again between 1853 and 1855, they were able to use Shi'ite volunteers to fight the Ottoman Empire, as well
fight against Imam Shamil’s Ghazavat ("holy war")
in Dagestan.
However, the Sunni's tended to throw their support behind Imam Shamil, sometimes gone so far as to take up arms against
the Russian oppressors.
Despite the Russian Empire’s
proclivity is toward divide et impera as a fundamental
principle, it was the imposition of Russian control and Russians are that
ultimately integrated and changed traditional Azerbaijanis society. To rule out Tsarist and Soviet Russian
domination, a process of the removal of certain particular traditions in Moslem
Azerbaijan, took place. When control of
Moslem Azerbaijan was passed from the Persian empire to the Russian Empire, a
substantial reform in administrative capacity was introduced; by the late 1850s
the bulk of Azerbaijan, which had formerly been controlled by individual khanates (Islamic principalities), and
was divided into two gubernii,
or provinces. This allowed for an
increase in the ability of Azerbaijanis to work together in order to realise their full potential, both economically and
socially.
While this political and social
change was extremely important for freedom foundation on which modern society
rests, the Azerbaijanis and then were fortunate enough to realise
capitalist economic change. Indeed, by
1870 the country was fully incorporated economically into the Russian
market. Azerbaijan mounted as the chief
supplier of rsw materials. However, economic, social and political
development was unequal: there was rural/urban split. The traditional economy in the rural areas
where is changing very slowly and was therefore hampering the overall economic
production ability of the country. This
divide, however, did indeed minimise to the extent
that Azerbaijan became an
integral part of the Soviet Union.
In virtually all societies, we see
that an increase in wealth usually is accompanied by an increase in the
intellectual output of a society. The
reason for this is that as economic wealth increases for some, that wealth
enables them to cogitate time issues that are not
directly associated with survival: these people are known as the
intelligentsia. And
this Azerbaijani intelligentsia wires influenced gravely by the confluence of
both Islamic and European civilizations; in other words, "equality"
and structure. Mirza Fathali Akhundzada,
probably the foremost representative of the of the
Azeri intelligentsia, was the first to state the importance of "the formation
of the literary language comprehensible to the mass region, and secularism as a
means of overcoming sectarian division.” The recognition that it was necessary, in
order for the promotion of Azeri benefit, to find a way to overcome the
sectarian divide is that would inevitably hamper future economic, social and
political integration, and would ultimately lead to the destruction of
Azerbaijan. By the beginning of the
20th-century, sectarian violence had been reduced by such a degree that it was
no longer a politically divisive issue, and any “flare-up” could be dealt with
calmly and rationally.
Truly beginning in 1895, 10 years
before the Russian Revolution, some very rudimentary ideologies word beginning
to appear in Azerbaijan. Pan-Islamism, which speaks to the collective
consciousness of the umma
(all Moslems), called for the unity of all Islamic People's threatened by the
infringements of Europe, began to take hold in Azerbaijan. Similar to P8n-Islamism, yet much more
parochial and xenophobic, was Pan-Turkism, which emphasise
the maintenance of the ethnic purity and and identity
of the Turkish people. however, despite
this surge of ethnic identification methods, the Azeri people remained the
least radicalised ethnic group in the Caucasus.
section VI --
nationalism and socialism in the Armenian rev.
When interrupting Armenian
nationalism, it must be remembered that the Armenian nation was quite spread
out and lived on the edges (and sometimes in the centre) of multinational
Empire's. This status as a minority
necessitated Armenians to strongly maintain and and
Hants wherever possible and they are cultural and societal relations with their
own people. Armenian political feeling
was influenced greatly by their revolutions in Europe,
especially the French Revolution, as well as the revolts in the Balkans. Much like European the transformation, but
perhaps with far more zealousness, the idea of Nation for Armenians was
significantly influenced heavily by Armenian Christianity. Armenians were also united by the fact that
they realised the needed to come together in order to
maintain ethnic homogeneity.
The Hunchak
Party, which was founded in 1887, and the Dashnak
Party, founded in 1890, were both numerical a very weak, and thus were forged
to define themselves in relation to Cultural and Revolutionary ideology. These two groups waged an
ideological fans of four other hearts and minds of the Armenian
people. For a many reasons, including
cultural and religious, the more moderate brand of socialism was chosen as the
national ideology; this ideology was much like that of the Mensheviks in
Russia. It is and implicit realisation that in the Revolution for the establishment of
true socialism must come from within and must also be non-violent; the ideology
and followers of the ideology realise that a
socialist Revolution will take a very one-time to achieve, but it will
eventually come to pass.
Because of the fact that the
ideology of Mensheviks and was easily taken over by Bolshevism in Russia, and
the fact that the Armenian people had chosen an ideology similar to Menshevism, and because of their religion, and the
Armenians were quite susceptible to imaginations of the Bolsheviks Party wants
it has come to power in the Soviet Union.
The genocide of 300,000 Armenians (from 1894 to 1896)
and the hands of the Ottoman Empire also proved to be extremely significant in
driving the Armenian people to align with Russia.
The beginning of the Russian
Revolution in 1905 also marked the beginning of what became known as the
"Tartar-Armenian War.” Tensions
between the two groups had been simmering ever since the economy had been
restructured to accommodate capitalism.
This restructuring bribed Azerbaijani Moslems and Christian Armenians
together and forced them to interact.
Due to the investment of each people and in their own belief and systems, there were significant
tensions between the two Peoples. Pico
has the Armenians had produced a nationalist movement led by the Dashnaktsutiun Party, its members had formed and Armenian
fading forced when the violence of the Revolution swept through Transcaucasia, were and thus better prepared for conflict
and and the Azerbaijanis. The clashes, which began in Baku and radiated outward, continued well in
to 1906. The estimates of the lives last
during this conflict and varied widely from 3100 to 10,000. while the amount of
the it was not completely lopsided, more Tartars than Armenians were
killed. Because of the losses suffered
at the hands of the Dashnakist (Armenian) fighting
squads, and Azeri nationalism, for one of the first times in Azeri history, was
truly set on fire.
Section VII
Map obtained at:
http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/ussrfall.htm
As it did
everywhere in the former Soviet Union, the collapse in 1991 led to significant
and possibly lasting changes in the Caucasus; not all of which were beneficial
for the immediate future of the international system. While it is true that the
collapse of the “Evil Empire,” as Ronald Reagyn was
so fond of calling it, the international repercussions stemming from the
collapse threaten international human security.
The collapse of the Soviet Union
brought with it first a sense of euphoria and joy, and then a profound sense of
urgency. President Boris Yeltsin in a
speech told all of the Republics of the former Union
to take “all of the sovereignty they could put in their pockets’.” This statement opened the flood-gates and in
what seemed to be overnight, over a dozen separate and diverse Republics
declared and gained their
independence. As this essay has focus is
the Caucasus, this essay will ignore the other
secessionist states. In accordance with what Yeltsin’s doctrine of grabbing as
much sovereignty there was it was possible, Georgia
took full advantage, along with Azerbaijan
and Armenia.
section VIII
April 9, 1991 was a day th at georgians
will never forget. It is the day of
their salvation from tyranny. Zviad Gamsakhurdia was elected
president in May 1991 It is unfortunate that President Gamsakhurdia turned out to have been a much better
political agitator and dissident than a President. Much like a man or woman who makes a good
revolutionary may not make a good political leader. Each of these disciplines takes different
skill sets. Despite this, the
independent state of Georgia
has survived. Since the collapse of the
Soviet Union, Georgia
has gone through some very difficult times, both politically and
economically.
In a paper published by Drs. Garibashvili and Kiknadze
entitled REPUBLIC OF GEORGIA: state and needs, they might go that since
the fault of the Soviet Union, Georgia
has than among the worst economic performers. a second discussion
paper that I found in that was dated February 22nd, 2002, that stated that the
Georgian GDP had ground in 2001 by 4.5 percent year-on-year, and it was
expected that the Georgian economy will continue to grow; it was forecast by
the International Monetary Fund that the economy would realize a growth of 3.5%
in 2002. This 1% drop in economic
productivity is directly linked to the downturn in the international economy,
as well as the continued economic problems facing Turky, Georgia’s largest trading
partner. The private sector, which is an
extremely important business sector as it tends to produce goods at a cost that
makes it competitive and therefore apt to cause the economy to grow, already
accounts for 70% of the national GDP.
The budget adopted by the courtroom
parliament for fiscal year 2002 contained a relatively generous allotment for
the improvement of the industrial development of a high performance Georgian
economy. The goal is to create an investment climate
that is as appealing as possible, while stimulating growth in the economy and
thus raising the basic standard of living in Georgia.
Economically, Georgia seems
to be making some very promising political and structural reforms that could
possibly lead to sustainable growth and poverty reduction. In a similar field of endeavour,
the government is promoting the legislative and structural reforms that are
needed in order to improve and strengthened the national energy system. This increase access to energy and will thus
drive along the path to further development the economic and social output of
the country. This, however, it is one of
the only true windbreaks products with regard to Georgia's track record as it is
today.
The Georgian constitution,
reactivated by the Georgian Supreme Soviet in 1991 who then amended the 1921
Constitution to allow for the election of a President, explicitely
states that "complete freedom of religious belief and confessions as
well as the independence of the church from the state" is a right
extended to all citizens of the state.
This concept of those separation of church and
state differs in the extreme when comparing to the division maintained in the United States of America. The Georgian constitution recognises
that Georgian Orthodox Church has played a role of "special importance in
Georgian history.” On March 30th, 2001,
that Georgian parliament began a process of giving to the Georgian Orthodox church and even more important position in Georgian
Society. This new policy will likely
killed the Georgian Orthodox Church specialists such that:
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Its clergy will be exempted from military service.
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Chaplains would serve in the military and in prisons.
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Orthodox beliefs would be taught in public schools.
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The sole right to grant permits for the construction of any Orthodox Church,
presumably including Armenia,
Georgian and Russian Orthodox churches.
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When this camcorder is finalized,
the Georgian Orthodox Church will no longer be separate from the state, and
from this can be assumed that there will be a limit placed on the freedom to
choose what one worships, if they are non-Orthodox. The majority of Georgians, however, seemed to
be of the opinion that belonging to the Georgian Orthodox faith is part and
power sole of being a true Georgian.
They tend to few other faiths as a threat to Orthodoxy, and best to the
nation as a whole. According to the New
York Times, and there are some who believe that the "Orthodox Church
has become increasingly linked to nationalist causes, and some of its
followers, and even some of its priests, have been implicated in the attacks on
other faiths. Others have been openly critical. In [2002] June, Zurab Tskhovrebadze, a spokesman
for the Georgian Patriarch, Ilya II, called the
Jehovah's Witnesses 'a fifth column whose activities are directed against
Georgia.' " in June of 2002, Bishop Levan
Pirtskhalaishvili, secretary to Patriarch Ilya II of the Georgian Orthodox Church, wrote to the owner
of the stadium in Tbilisi asking that it not be rented to a group of Jehovah's
Witnesses who wanted to hold a gathering, by noting that it might “arouse the
just indignation of a very large portion of society." This is not a completely unexpected reaction
to greater diversity within society, but it does stand as a disturbing trend
that may repudiate some of the offences that the Georgian state has made over
the last 12 years.
section IX
Azerbaijan has shown all of the
inconsistencies and has gone through all of the problems that accompany the
transformation from a command-style economy to a free-market style
economy. However, due to its great
stockpiles of natural resources, especially oil, the future of Azerbaijan
looks to be relatively bright. In the
four year's spending in 1991 and 1995, Azerbaijan has suffered the
sharpest and perhaps the most disastrous economic crises facing ex-Soviet
states. During the four-year window
referred to above, the Azeri non-oil heavy industry underwent the
transformation through which 70% of Azerbaijan's industrial capacity was erased
IL 50 percent of the total economic GDP was also erased. There are however to all and very important
reasons that investors are interested in Azerbaijan. One of these is obviously it's
massive oil and gas resources, but the second is much less tangible: Azerbaijan it is strategically located between
the east and the West, and being on an and the Caspian Sea
provides a perfect route for trade to flow from East West and vice versa.
In 1995 the Azerbaijan
government implemented certain economic and structural reforms that provided
for in the cessation and ultimate reversal of the decline in GDP. The policies made the country look like a
better investment to foreign capital, as well as improving and enforcing the
legal system. The government has also,
in 2000, implemented a new privatisation law which is
meant to government and the further transition of the economy. Now that the government has implemented rules
and regulations and that our intended to address indigenously the problems that
the Azerbaijan economy faces, and the fact that the growth rate of GDP is no
longer native, the future of Azerbaijan in the global economy looks to be quite
rosy.
section X
Armenia was the first state in the
Commonwealth of independent States to register positive growth: this occurred
in 1994. Surprisingly, Armenia
achieved This feat through the radical application of
economic reforms suggested by international financial institutions. It is receiving not only praise for its
achievements, but it is also one of the few success cases that I advise can point
to and say "the Armenian economy grew because of the policies we told it
is to introduce.” however, this growth
came after a a sharp decline which amounted to 50
percent of the GDP and it is clear from our way surprising that Armenia was the
first country to post positive growth.
Thus far, Armenian citizens have not been able to enjoy even a modicum
of the lifestyle they "enjoyed" under the Soviet
Union until
the
late 1990s.
The Armenian economy has gone through a significant period of
instability, yet the future is bright.
In the economy has been forced to diversify to such an extent that this
diversity, in effect, creates a sustainable and productive commercial economy
as well as being a way to minimise the impacts of the
major or minor sector-focused reccesions. The idea behind a diverse economy is that if
one sector were company takes "a beating," either in the other
businesses in the sector will pick up the slack war other sectors entirely will
pick up the slack created by that devastated company for sector of the economy.
section XI
This conflict. in its most recent
form, is only fifteen years old.
However, the historical animosities respecting the disputed regions of
Nagorno-Karabakh extend back centuries, and perhaps even millennia. Each side has what seems to
be legitimate claims to the territory.
These two groups are in a strategically important area where stability
would be in the best interest of all concerned.
By not redrawing the borders between Armenia
and Azerbaijan
during the Soviet era, and finalizing where and to
whom the Nagorno-Karaback region belonged, Stalin
created a very intricate puzzle: who is entitled to Nagorno-Karabakh? The Armenians claim that they do, but the Azeris have just as valid a claim. This extremely divisive issue, which has
displaced 1.0 – 1.2
million people, almost all of which have taken up residence in
tent cities outside the zone of conflict but within Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan itself has a population
of only about 7.5 milloion, so an addition of about
15% of its population is a heavy burden, especially when a state is just
starting to get back on its feet after a period of extremely painful
readjustment from a command economy to a market-based one.
section XII
The issues faced by the peoples of
the Caucasus are so diverse and intricate a puzzle that it is extremely
different to even approach, let alone come to a resolution or any conclusion
other than “this is a very complex topic that deserves more study.” This essay has attempted outline some of the
variables that have contributed to the current situation in which the Caucasus find themselves.
The problem is not that there is a differentiation of beliefs among
different peoples. It is instead a
problem with the balance of power and the distribution of resources. the difficulties
faced by persons trying and failing to adjust to the new norms and modalities
of an ever-changing society, as well as the problem of envy.
The problems in the Caucasus seem to be a manifestation of several different
variables. These include things that are
indefinable such as culture, temperament and mentality, combined with two
things that are inter-related and very basic human desires. I am referring to Power and Envy. Where power is the ability to have things done,
envy is the want of that power.
Unfortunately, it is not possible to rid oneself of these feelings any
more than one could remove ones eye. The
only way to work around these inequalities is to find a way to appreciate and
use the different things the other offers.
This is the problem with the state system in general; it does not allow
for the two persons to truly work together in order to figure something out
that neither could do on their own. The
news articles that this authour has read in his preparation
for this essay have been, on-the- whole, quite positive. Regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh situation, it
seems that perhaps the only recourse is to create a confederated state between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the
Nagorno-Karabakh region being under joint control.
The interest that these states have
in working hard to resolve these significant problems is that they have the
opportunity, if they maintain political stability, to reap the rewards. If the predictions are correct and if there
is even half of the amount in the possible reserves as the analysts say, there
is a great deal of money to be made.
section XIII
The issues faced by the peoples of
the Caucasus are so diverse and intricate a puzzle that it is extremely
different to even approach, let alone come to a resolution or any conclusion
other than “this is a very complex topic that deserves more study.” This essay has attempted outline some of the
variables that have contributed to the current situation in which the Caucasus find themselves.
The problem is not that there is a differentiation of beliefs among
different peoples. It is instead a
problem with the balance of power and the distribution of resources. the difficulties
faced by persons trying and failing to adjust to the new norms and modalities
of an ever-changing society, as well as the problem of envy.
The problems in the Caucasus seem to be a manifestation of several different
variables. These include things that are
indefinable such as culture, temperament and mentality, combined with two
things that are inter-related and very basic human desires. I am referring to Power and Envy. Because this problem, and therefore the
solution to the problem, hinges on emotional resolution, the only thing
outsiders can do is suggest structures that may help the peoples of the Caucasus to resolve their problems themselves.
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@ http://www.inogate.org/html/countries/economy/azerbaijan_ec.htm
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http://www.edisher.com/history.asp
http://www.friends-partners.org/oldfriends/telecomm/nato/georgia.html. This article may be correct, but I was unable
to find a date on the report, so I and hesitant to believe it.